Risk Assessment

In this context, the objective of WP3 is to develop innovative approaches to face challenges corresponding to the following two tasks:
  • Modeling complex systems for vulnerabilities analysis & risk assessment. WP3 aims at adequately using, combining when needed, or adapting existing approaches such as system diagnosis, prognostics analysis and health management techniques & reliability theory (#T4), multi-agent modeling (#T7).Urbanized areas are becoming increasingly complex and their vulnerability to natural or technological hazards is hard to analyze and assess. Part of WP2 activity is centered on the development of more comprehensive multi-factorial models for such complex dynamical systems, characterized by rare/emerging/non observed but highly impacting events, cascading effects, hybrid behavior (continuous and discrete dynamical behavior), and multi-scale spatial and temporal interdependencies. The coupling of dynamics, such as social-human behavior/natural hazards (flooding, landslides (#T3), and earthquakes (#T7)), earthquakes/infrastructures (#T8, #T10, #T11) will be particularly studied.

  • Building some relevant risk indicators/metrics in a dynamical context together with decision functions including modelling of human behavior with respect to risk (perception or aversion/acceptance of risk, #T3) and taking financial and hedging issues (#T1) into account is also needed for effective quantitative assessment and decision making support. Improvement, adequate use or mixing of existing modeling and simulation approaches such as statistical modeling of extreme values (#T1), prospective topics such as uncertain event/hazard-triggered hybrid system modeling and scenario derivation & analysis will be also investigated in the framework of seminars.

2-year deliverables

  • State of the art on Risk assessment
  • Dynamical risk mapping on the studied areas: Alps (#T3, #T5), Lebanon (#T7), Haiti (#T11)
  • Innovative approaches for modeling & risk assessment (report)
  • MATLAB simulator design to demonstrate living-risk analysis & mitigation algorithms

3.5-year deliverables

  • Publications
  • Full implementation of the developed decision-making algorithms in the simulation platform (studied area: Grenoble basin)