SEEPIA Project: Transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic in France - Work in progress and new paper

from October 14, 2020 to October 31, 2020

SEEPIA Project : Simulation & Estimation of EPIdemics with Algorithms

A work of the Grenoble RISK Institute (CDP RISK) is in under progress on the COVID-19 in France, and its dynamics, by taking in particular into account the transport effect and the lockdown strategies at different geographical scales. In this context a first result has been accepted for publication.

A network model to reveal the transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic after lockdown

In this paper, by fitting the dynamical model to the real collected data, an optimization algorithm is used to derive the parameters, the initial condition and the epidemics start date of regions in France.
Considering all the age classes together, a network model of the pandemic transport between regions in France is presented on the basis of the regional extended model and is simulated to reveal the transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic after lockdown.

Using the measured values of displacement of people between cities, the pandemic network of all cities in France is simulated by using the same model and method as the pandemic network of regions. Finally, a discussion on an integro-differential equation is given and a new model for the network pandemic model of each age class is provided.

Published on October 6, 2020

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